China’s Growing Presence in Russia’s Backyard

27/03/2015 14:20

China’s Growing Presence in Russia’s Backyard


By Neil Thompson. The diplomat reports.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin famously described the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. A conservative Russian nationalist, Putin has lamented the break-up of the old Soviet Union, not because he regretted the disappearance of communism, but because of the severing of the numerous and deep economic, linguistic, social, and cultural connections that linked most of the fifteen constituent republics of the old USSR. It is these ties he is keen to recreate, albeit in a looser supranational union than the old federal structure which bound the fifteen national-homelands into one communist “state.”

This vision, if not exactly shared by a majority of the peoples living in the lands of the former Soviet Union, was received with some sympathy – at least until Ukraine’s easternmost Russian-speaking regions were roused to revolt by Russian intelligence operatives. For example, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev pushed hard for a customs union encompassing all of Soviet space for almost two decades without any Russian pressure to do so. His efforts recently culminated in the official launch in January of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia as the founding members and ex-Soviet states such as Armenia being enticed to follow.

The three countries presently in the EEU are home to 173 million people and have a combined GDP of $2.4 trillion. But they all have high levels of corruption and state interference in the economy. With their inefficient bureaucracies and brittle authoritarian regimes it is an open question whether their squabbling governments can integrate Eurasia into a rules-based market economy. The organization is already suffering from a credibility gap in Europe, with Georgia, Ukraine and the Baltic States having already tilted towards the West, while Azerbaijan treads warily between the EU and Russia. Perhaps more surprisingly in view of their lower levels of economic development and greater geographic distance from the lucrative markets of the West, most of the Central Asian republics have held back as well. This leaves the EEU unlikely to attract many other ex-Soviet states, except for Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

Some of this reluctance is justified skepticism of the benefits of the EEU and the fears of authoritarian Central Asian governments that it could undermine their own shaky legitimacy. But it is as important to remember who is outside of the EEU as much as who is in it. Although on the map the EEU runs from Europe to the Pacific, it purposely does not include the most important Asia-Pacific state, China. Though landlocked Kazakhstan’s high transport costs are to be lowered through equal access to the Russian and Belarusian railway networks, creating transport routes linking up the European and Asian trade which flows to it, Kazakhstan’s border with China, the world’s second largest economy, will remain subject to stiff tariff barriers. While Putin has partnered with China in other non-Western international organizations, such as with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on matters of security, he recognizes that Russia faces an economic threat to its influence from a competitor state on its southern flank as much as its western one.

A good example is the situation in the southern Central Asian state of Tajikistan. With a GNI of $870 per capita according to the World Bank, it is the poorest republic in the region. Since a civil war in the 1990s the economy has been kept afloat by remittances from Tajik guest workers in Russia. Control over Russian entry visas, and reliance on the Russian military to help counter security threats such as drug smuggling from neighboring Afghanistan, has meant that Tajikistan’s president-for-life Emomali Rahmon is presently very susceptible to pressure from the Kremlin. Rahmon has been in power since 1992, and there are many who would challenge his power at home. The emigration of many young people is a useful way to divert economic malcontents from challenging the status quo, one that Russia controls.

Chinese Influence

China’s influence in Tajikistan has been growing, with economic ties deepening extensively since the end of the civil war in 1997. The Chinese have extended credits and helped to build roads, tunnels and power infrastructure. Chinese firms are investing in oil and gas exploration and in gold mining, significantly so as mineral and energy exports to China could one day replace cotton as Tajikistan’s most important export. The economy still remains dependent on the agricultural sector, but if mining and energy were to become ascendant, Tajikistan’s economy would be reoriented towards its southern neighbor, with inevitable political consequences for Russia’s position as the dominant foreign influence there.

However, while China has talked up the prospects of investing in Central Asia since independence came from the Soviet Union, the actual sums spent have been fairly modest. Overwhelmingly, Chinese attention focused instead on security concerns, specifically the impact Central Asian nationalism and Islamic extremism could have on China’s north-western Xinjiang province. An ongoing uproar involving the discovery of fake Turkish passports in the hands of minority Muslim Uighurs attempting to leave China is a classic example. The Uighurs are a Turkic ethnic group and the Turkish government is suspected by China of complicity in the Uighurs’ ability to acquire the forged documents, as they are biometrically encoded to satisfy EU antiterrorist requirements and difficult for outsiders to forge without help. China has long found it convenient to blame foreign influences for its problems in Xinjiang.

But now a number of factors now may be coming together to change Chinese interests in Central Asia. China’s powerful strongman Xi Jinping has offered the notion of a “Chinese Dream” – a national rejuvenation that creates a prosperous society, with opportunities for China’s neighbors to participate. Xi often invokes the example of the legendary Central Asian Silk Road of the early Han dynasty. Highlighting ancient Chinese power and commercial dynamism suits a regime that bases its legitimacy on Chinese nationalism and raising living standards. A return to Central Asia as an economic force satisfies both premises, signaling that China has fully regained her old status as the world’s premier economic power under its new leadership. As a sign of Beijing’s shifting regional priorities, Xi has personally authorized a New Silk Road initiative that marries China’s economic ambitions to its concerns about security in its western regions.

Since the millennium, China has been engaged in a long-term effort to develop its impoverished western provinces. The Chinese regime believes this will reduce discontent amongst minorities there like the Uighur, who are presently drawn to Islamic militancy and separatist groups. If Xi’s initiative takes off, trade with, and through, the neighboring Central Asian states would speed this effort considerably. Moreover, Beijing is now the second largest hydrocarbon consuming country in the world. Energy is something Central Asia has in abundance to sell to anyone who can get it out of the ground and to market, and China has experience of extracting oil from dangerous conflict zones before in Sudan. Sales overland from its near-neighbors would usefully reduce China’s vulnerability to U.S. naval pressure on its overseas energy supplies at the Strait of Malacca should, for example, there be another crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

China deepening interest in the affairs of Central Asia is not something Vladimir Putin can outlast as easily as he was able to do with the West’s efforts. China is not bogged down in an expensive and intractable war in the area, and it has a direct territorial stake in regional stability. It is not going away and it is also a much more attractive market to Central Asian states than a Russian one that is presently reeling under the weight of collapsing energy prices and Western sanctions. China has already had a transformational effect on the economies of its south-eastern neighbors, where it sits at the center of a spider’s web of production, with parts and materials of goods crossing borders in multiple directions before assemblage. There is no reason to believe that if Beijing now wishes to craft Central Asian states onto its economic juggernaut, that the feeble barrier of the EEU will hold it back for long. Russia has survived as the dominant power in Central Asia as long as it has only because the area was poor and economically backwards enough to escape global attention. That dominance is soon to be tested against the Chinese model of economic development; it is unlikely to fare very well if China’s record elsewhere is any indication.


In case you have found a mistake in the text, please send a message to the editor by selecting the mistake and pressing Ctrl-Enter.

Newsfeed

18/04/2024 11:27 New streets in Koti equipped with illumination operated via automatic and remote control 11/04/2024 10:30 Byblos Bank Armenia donates AMD 5 million to Health Fund for Children of Armenia 06/04/2024 14:34 Viva-MTS sums up the financial results for 2023 and confirms its leadership in the sector 02/04/2024 12:20 Success story resulting from continued support. From music therapy to the conservatory 29/03/2024 14:41 Ameriabank named the Best Bank in Armenia for 2024 by Global Finance magazine 28/03/2024 14:02 IoT Lab opens at National Polytechnic University of Armenia 26/03/2024 16:58 “START+”: “Kinodaran” without subscription fee, 10 GB internet, 1000 minutes and favorite apps without any limits 25/03/2024 16:14 Change in Viva-MTS company name and General Terms of Provisioning Services 22/03/2024 17:24 Marzes remain in the focus of attention of Viva-MTS: New service center opened in Tchambarak 21/03/2024 14:12 In 2023, the SME Loan Portfolio of Ameriabank Reported More Than 30% Growth 19/03/2024 10:20 Mikael Vardanyan donated 117 mln drams for garbage trucks and 230 waste bins for Masis community 14/03/2024 18:12 New technologies at the core of rural infrastructure development 13/03/2024 16:32 The number of Team mobile subscribers is over 1 million 13/03/2024 13:01 “RED”: fixed and mobile services in one package for customers valuing convenience and quality 11/03/2024 14:51 Global Finance Recognizes Ameriabank's Leadership in Sustainable Finance in Armenia 06/03/2024 14:07 Byblos Bank Armenia named CaseKey title sponsor again 05/03/2024 13:36 Doing Digital Forum Returns Featuring Brett King as Keynote Speaker 01/03/2024 18:42 "The Innovator's Dilemma": Byblos Bank Armenia supports publication of Armenian edition 29/02/2024 16:45 “Personal Assistant” program changes popular mindset in regions 27/02/2024 18:12 Viva-MTS: 30-day internet-package for the many destinations within “VOYAGE” service 22/02/2024 17:53 The kindergarten of Armavir village is already being supplied with solar photovoltaic panels 19/02/2024 16:53 Viva-MTS, a company cultivating reading traditions 19/02/2024 12:48 Ameriabank set to join BOGG, a London Stock Exchange (LSE) listed financial group as a standalone entity 14/02/2024 14:53 Years of hard work and a sustainable approach to infrastructure development in regions 07/02/2024 14:49 Virtual PBX: Smart tool for corporate clients 02/02/2024 18:26 Viva-MTS named one of the ten most attractive employers 26/01/2024 18:15 Ameriabank is the Largest Taxpayer Among Armenian Banks 25/01/2024 17:03 Viva-MTS and “SOURCE” Foundation's “Personal Assistant” program is achieving the desired result in Syunik 24/01/2024 19:14 The shareholder of Viva-MTS has changed: The company will reach new achievements 23/01/2024 12:56 Byblos Bank Armenia to sponsor CaseKey team’s participation in Budapest’s CUBE 2024 22/01/2024 14:27 53% increase in Internet traffic in the Viva-MTS network. New Year's Eve and the first day compared to the same period last year 18/01/2024 18:30 “Viva University”: a long-term investment in youth empowerment 29/12/2023 15:49 Viva-MTS: investments that ensure sustainable development using innovative solutions 28/12/2023 14:46 The Christmas Miracle in Shirak Region - Ameriabank Santas Visited Children from Artsakh 22/12/2023 11:43 12 participants of “Get Started” program will explore the startup ecosystem 20/12/2023 20:38 Byblos Bank Armenia donates New Year gift funds to Soldier's Home 14/12/2023 15:51 Daily solutions for Viva-MTS clients based on artificial intelligence and deep neural networks 13/12/2023 16:24 How Ameriabank continued to deliver success amid the volatility of the global markets 13/12/2023 10:15 Mikael Vardanyan donated the maternity hospital of the Surb Grigor Lusavorich Medical Center the modern medical equipment amounting 116 million drams (Video) 11/12/2023 15:53 Viva-MTS: business for business. Virtual PBX has become an effective management tool for corporate subscribers 09/12/2023 20:46 “We rule out the return of citizens of the Republic of Artsakh to the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan”: Tհe appeal of the political and civil organizations of the Artsakh to the International community 08/12/2023 14:01 «Wi-Fi Calling». call through Wi-Fi network from Armenia or abroad in frames of the tariff plan 30/11/2023 15:25 Changes in the terms of provisioning “M2M Tracker Plus” package of services 28/11/2023 18:34 A new phase of the educational program “Viva University” has started 27/11/2023 10:56 Armen Avetisian, Viva-MTS General Director, had an open-door lecture at YSU 20/11/2023 16:40 Viva-MTS and “SOURCE” foundation will support four families in Syunik through the program “Personal Assistant” 17/11/2023 17:36 Ameriabank Named the Best Bank for Digital Solutions in Armenia for 2023 16/11/2023 19:43 Best offer: Postpaid “UNLIM” – unlimited Internet for only 4500 AMD 15/11/2023 09:19 Byblos Bank Armenia Celebrates Education at CaseKey 2023 Gala 06/11/2023 16:18 30 years on stage: The partnership between Viva-MTS and “Paros” Chamber Choir continues 01/11/2023 17:12 Thinking “green” is a lifestyle․ Viva-MTS and "My Forest Armenia" continue the environmental partnership 01/11/2023 11:47 Red Flag Alert for Genocide - Azerbaijan in Armenia 31/10/2023 16:12 Now more than 500 thousand Viva-MTS subscribers use the VoLTE service 28/10/2023 10:44 Five times more internet in MTS Russia network 24/10/2023 16:53 “Recharge+”: now for up to AMD 3000 20/10/2023 11:05 Amundi-Acba made the first direct investment in the equities of an Armenian company 18/10/2023 14:53 Viva-MTS is the General Partner of the State Award of Republic of Armenia for Global Contribution to Humanity through High-Tech 16/10/2023 14:46 “UNLIM” tariff plan also available for postpaid subscribers 13/10/2023 12:35 Solar energy in Viva-MTS mobile stations: saving resources and oxygen 04/10/2023 18:06 Technological support to farmers: Electric fences in the border village of Vahan 27/09/2023 10:25 Financial support in the amount of 123 million drams from Karen Vardanyan to the families having many children, evicted as a result of the 44-day war (Video) 18/09/2023 14:15 President Samvel Shahramanyan has appointed Artur Harutyunyan as State Minister 07/09/2023 23:24 Ex-Ambassador Mikayel Minasyan: “Will Armenia face a war or not?” 31/08/2023 18:28 Ex-Ambassador Mikayel Minasyan has provided an analysis of the Armenian issue 30/08/2023 19:30 S&P Upgrades Ameriabank to 'BB-', Outlook Stable 26/08/2023 13:52 Ex-Ambassador Mikayel Minasyan calls for unconditional consolidation to preserve national identity and save Stepanakert 26/08/2023 13:51 Ex-Ambassador Mikayel Minasyan: “The situation still has a diplomatic resolution” 25/08/2023 12:29 Freedom Broker Introduces Full Brokerage Services for Individuals, Pioneering the Market in Armenia 15/08/2023 12:36 Ameriabank Wins in 3 Nominations of Global Finance World’s Best Digital Bank Awards 2023 01/08/2023 13:55 «Viva University»: Starting inception for university students 01/08/2023 09:57 “I do not know how to interpret the persecution of talented and creative people who have served Armenia all their lives” Defender of Armen and Sergey Smbatyans 19/07/2023 16:16 Amundi-Acba made a huge investment in the RA economy 19/07/2023 10:30 Electric Fences are a new replacement for scarecrows: modern technologies made available to villages by Viva-MTS 14/07/2023 11:39 Viva-MTS presents a podcast series on a variety of themes 13/07/2023 16:45 20,000 trees were mulched in Lori with the support of Viva-MTS Partnership to increase forest cover in Armenia 11/07/2023 11:42 A modern infrastructure system has been launched in border village of Koti 04/07/2023 18:39 Ameriabank Receives 4 Sustainable Finance Awards from Global Finance 01/07/2023 10:52 Viva-MTS turns 18: The best is yet to come 30/06/2023 20:18 Shell brand is already in Armenia. The first fuel stations were put into operation 29/06/2023 15:51 Moody's changes Ameriabank's outlook to stable; affirms Ba3 rating 28/06/2023 16:00 The latest volume of the book series "The Armenians of the World” " is dedicated to Armenian philanthropists of the world 27/06/2023 16:22 Mobile “Electric fences” in Yeghegis community have become an “obstacle” for bears 22/06/2023 13:16 Viva-MTS: Harmless interaction between "Electric Fences" and bears 22/06/2023 11:35 Governor of the State of Kansas Laura Kelly visited Tsitsernakaberd memorial 22/06/2023 10:57 Flynas started operating flights on the route Riyadh-Yerevan-Riyadh 16/06/2023 11:42 MyInvest. Ameriabank has Launched an Online Investment Platform 15/06/2023 13:04 Four projects of infrastructure development in border village Koghb 13/06/2023 15:36 Practical business skills in focus of CaseKey 2023–Byblos Bank Armenia partnership 12/06/2023 12:03 International experience and new football skills: Milan Academy Junior Camp wraps up in Yerevan 09/06/2023 13:55 Viva-MTS’ digital B2B services show steady growth 06/06/2023 12:33 Viva-MTS expands and strengthens the entire mobile infrastructure along with the development of the 5G network 05/06/2023 11:31 Partnership for Environmental Protection and Community Development 03/06/2023 11:56 15 schoolchildren face Gabriel Sargissian in open-air simultaneous display (Video) 02/06/2023 15:53 Team Telecom Armenia is undertaking its initial public offering (IPO) 01/06/2023 10:43 We hope that some of these Armenian children will become professional football players. Claudio Zola 01/06/2023 10:18 On the occasion of June 1st Karen Vardanyan provided 115 million drams to the parentless children of Yerevan 31/05/2023 19:15 Team Group of Companies has acquired 30% of Georgian SkyTel 29/05/2023 13:34 Fly Arna launches new direct flights connecting Yerevan to Kuwait 25/05/2023 14:33 Regional Call Center of Viva-MTS opens in Vanadzor 23/05/2023 17:48 15 YSU students will receive Byblos Bank Armenia scholarships and tuition reimbursement