Expert blog: Speeches of Aliyev and Mamedyarov contradict each other

When commenting on the recent statements of Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov in his interview with the Italian mass media, expert Tigran Abrahamian indicated one noteworthy detail: Mamedyarov speaks about regional threats four days after the January 9 session of the Azerbaijani government, during which President Ilham Aliyev proudly spoke about the achievements ‘in building the army and the arsenal of the Azerbaijani army’.

Moreover, in his speech President Aliyev touched upon the change in the balance of forces in the region, hinting at the correlation of forces in favor of Azerbaijan and stressing that a ‘realistic approach,’ which ‘should be based on the correlation of real forces and the growing might of Azerbaijan’, should form a basis for a resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

“The Azerbaijani army is one of the strongest in the world,” Ilham Aliyev declared. It turns out that despite its ‘might’, the Azerbaijani army – ‘one of the strongest in the world and equipped with modern weapons’ – sees a serious threat in the Defense Army of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic.

Three main conclusions can be made from this. First, the Azerbaijani president lies when presenting the Azerbaijani army as one of the strongest in the world. Secondly, Azerbaijan admits that even under conditions of the ongoing arms race, Azerbaijan is considerably inferior to the NKR Defense Army, which creates a serious threat (the matter has not yet concerned the Armed Forces of Armenia). Thirdly, the legends about the Azerbaijani army are grossly exaggerated, and the Azerbaijani army continues to be inferior from the qualitative and military point of view. Perhaps the most realistic option in this context is that the balance of forces in the regions has not been disturbed.

A few words about regional threats. Of course, there are many threats in the region. The policy implemented by Armenia’s two neighbors – Azerbaijan and Turkey serves the purpose of creating real external threats to Armenia and the whole region. The policy of Armenia’s blockade alone speaks of the insincerity of the Azerbaijani foreign minister’s speech.