Suren Sargsyan says Rubio may publicly support the current government ahead of elections

International affairs expert Suren Sargsyan highlighted the key aspects of Rubio’s visit.
He noted:

“1. First, this will be the first visit by a U.S. Secretary of State to Armenia since Hillary Clinton’s visit in 2014.

2. This appears to be a short, overnight transit visit. The Secretary of State is returning from India and, following the example of Donald Rumsfeld’s 1999 visit, is expected to spend only a few hours in Yerevan. At that time, then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld met with Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan and President Robert Kocharyan at the presidential residence and expressed satisfaction with the negotiations. 

3. Rubio is expected to meet his Armenian counterpart for 30 minutes at the airport, after which a memorandum of understanding will be signed, and he may then meet with the prime minister at the government building. If such a meeting does not take place that would certainly be a significant circumstance. 

4. The U.S. agenda in the South Caucasus currently has two main priorities: implementation of the TRIPP project and increased pressure on Iran. Notably, TRIPP is also being considered within the broader framework of policy toward Iran. 

5. Rubio’s decision not to travel to Baku, in my view, is not accidental. TRIPP runs through Armenian territory and is primarily an Armenian-American project. Azerbaijan’s position on both TRIPP and Iran is already well known to Washington, leaving little need for further clarification. Therefore, I believe the main focus of the talks will center on developments around Iran and the future of TRIPP. 

6. Many are also interested in whether Rubio will directly support the current government ahead of the elections. I consider this possible, but one of the busiest people in the world would certainly not visit Yerevan solely for that purpose. Another question is whether the authorities will use the visit for PR purposes, even if Rubio makes no public statements. 

7. More broadly, the United States in Armenia will naturally support any force capable of advancing American interests in the South Caucasus, regardless of who that force may be. 

8. I hope the Armenian authorities will not become involved in any anti-Iranian ventures, especially given that even the Trump administration, after becoming engaged, has struggled to find an exit strategy consistent with the realities on the ground.”