How high are the chances of TRIPP being implemented at this point? Suren Sargsyan

International affairs expert Suren Sargsyan wrote:

“How high are the chances of implementing TRIPP at this point?

I have repeatedly noted that the Trump administration has reached a level of activity and involvement in the South Caucasus and, why not, Central Asia that no U.S. administration has managed to achieve since 1992.

Of course, this is not solely the result of favorable geopolitical conditions. Naturally, the fact that Russia is focused on the war in Ukraine has also had an impact, significantly weakening its involvement and influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The same applies to Iran. This circumstance has also created an opportunity for the Trump administration to play a more active role in the region.

However, two key factors are also extremely important, making this process unprecedentedly rapid and effective.

The first factor is Steve Witkoff.

According to available information, one of the architects of TRIPP is Steve Witkoff. The idea of connecting Central Asia with Turkey and Europe through TRIPP is also attributed to his team. This initiative has not only economic and transport significance, but also an important geopolitical component. It is also important that Witkoff has direct access to Trump, as a result of which bureaucratic and hierarchical obstacles did not arise at the initial stage of the project in February 2025.

In turn, the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict would allow Washington to deprive Russia of one of its most important levers for maintaining influence in the South Caucasus – the ability to exploit the continued existence of the conflict.

The second important factor in this process is the management style of the Trump administration, which is notable for the significant reduction of bureaucratic processes, particularly in addressing issues considered vital, including the use of force. It is enough to recall how quickly the Panama Canal, Venezuela and a number of other long-standing issues were addressed.

Decision-making processes are proceeding as quickly as possible, without traditional bureaucratic delays, allowing large-scale geopolitical projects to be advanced rapidly and solutions to be found. In this context, President Trump's personal involvement in these processes also plays an important role. At the same time, Marco Rubio heads not only the State Department but also the National Security Council, contributing to closer coordination between foreign policy and national security structures. As a result, competition between different agencies and lengthy interagency consultations are minimized, making decision-making and implementation faster and more efficient.

Neither Trump nor the key members of his team have ever been bureaucrats. It is precisely this circumstance that allows them to understand how bureaucracy complicates not only political decision-making but also the implementation of decisions, even when they concern matters of urgent and strategic importance.

In this regard, this administration is distinctively different from all previous administrations, without exception. These are, of course, key, but not all, factors. Of course, there are a number of factors that hinder the implementation of TRIPP, even amid such serious efforts, but I will address them in a separate post.”