Expert’s blog: Azerbaijan awaits official explanation

The newly appointed Defense Minister of Azerbaijan Zakir Gasanov said at the meeting with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs that Baku awaits Moscow’s official explanation in connection with the statement of the commander of the Russian 102nd military base in Armenia.

We would remind you that in his interview with Krasnaya Zvezda paper on October 10, the commander of the Russian 102nd military base in Armenia Colonel Andrei Ruzinsky said that in case of a resumption of hostilities by Azerbaijan in Nagorno Karabakh, the military base under his command ‘may enter into an armed conflict in accordance with the treaty obligations of the Russian Federation within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)”.

Azerbaijan is simply unable or unwilling to accept the reality, which is a result of the strategic allied relations between Armenia and Russia and their agreements within the CSTO framework.

It would be naïve to think that the commander of the Russian 102nd military base in Armenia could on his own initiative give an interview and discuss a delicate subject such as the Karabakh conflict and the involvement of the Russian base in case of a possible war, especially as Krasnaya Zvezda is an official newspaper of Russian Defense Ministry.

Such statements are not necessarily made by high-ranking officials representing a country. There are certain messages coming also through unofficial persons considered ‘mouthpieces’ and periodicals.

Of course, it is not ruled out that at some stage the Russian foreign minister or the president will make a similar statement, but voicing such a statement through a specific person is due to the degree of the risk of the situation.

If Azerbaijan attempts to prove its threats by concrete actions, then a Russian official – Azerbaijani officials talk much about explanations by such an official - will undoubtedly make a statement about the respective agreements between Armenia and Russia and within the CSTO framework.

By the way, exactly at the same time the Chairman of the Defense and Security Standing Committee of the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly, Anatoly Vyborny, didn’t rule out that in the future “the CSTO may work out clear mechanisms so that Russia will no longer sell arms to Azerbaijan’, which certainly fits into the logic of the statement by the commander of the Russian 102nd military base in Armenia.

Armenia is actively developing cooperation with Russia and the CSTO member states in military and political relations, but it should be noted that for us, the guarantee number one in terms of ensuring the security of our country is the Armenian army that will perform its military task in any situation, regardless of regional developments and the interests of various centers of force.