In Fitch's view, a return to military conflict is currently unlikely

The government reported breaking up a "coup" plot in June 2025, arresting senior members of the clergy and an influential businessman whose electricity distribution company was subsequently nationalised.

In Fitch's view, the government's stability is not at risk, and the capacity of institutions has not been affected by recent developments. In March 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia reported reaching a peace agreement, although the contents and timescale for signing a treaty are unclear.

In Fitch's view, a return to military conflict is currently unlikely.