U.S. Vice President Vance made a rather pivotal statement in Azerbaijan: political analyst

Political analyst Hakob Badalyan wrote:

“U.S. Vice President Vance made a rather significant statement in Azerbaijan. Of course, this is my subjective assessment, but I believe his remark reflects the deeper essence of his regional visit.

Vance stated that Aliyev is the only person, after President Trump, who maintains good relations with both Erdogan and Netanyahu. At first glance, this may appear to be just another diplomatic courtesy – one of several gestures the U.S. Vice President extended toward Aliyev.

In my view, however, the statement points to a much deeper layer. In the South Caucasus, U.S. policy finds itself ‘between two rocks’ – Turkey and Israel, or more precisely, Erdogan and Netanyahu. Essentially, Vance may be signaling that Washington sees Azerbaijan as a potential ‘stabilizer’ in this configuration, or at least as a contender for such a role.

On the one hand, this would represent a serious and weighty responsibility for Aliyev. On the other hand, it poses a significant challenge for Armenia. If Aliyev assumes such a role, he will undoubtedly seek to extract maximum strategic dividends from the United States – and this is where his ambitions toward Armenia come to the forefront. The so ‘Trump route’ is largely part of this dynamic. Meanwhile, in Yerevan, Vance spoke about the importance of what he described as ‘the next stage of peacemaking.’”