“The Moldovan scenario is already being implemented in Armenia: if they don’t win by June 7, they will lose on June 8” – Armen Badalyan

The key question in 2026 will be who is allowed to appear on the ballot, political analyst Armen Badalyan said in an interview with Aysor.am.

“This is the most important issue, because the so-called ‘Moldovan scenario’ has already begun in Armenia. Its essence is to ensure the reproduction of the ruling political force by using any, even dishonest, technologies, as happened in Moldova,” he said. 

According to Badalyan, the authorities cannot apply the first and second elements of that scenario but may resort to the third. “They cannot import votes from abroad or prevent certain citizens from participating in elections, as the Constitution prohibits this. But they can use the third option: refusing to register parties or removing them from the ballot. That is why the central question is whose name will be on the ballot on voting day and whose votes the Central Electoral Commission will recognize as valid. Much will depend on this,” he said.

Badalyan stressed that, in his view, opposition forces must secure victory before the vote. “If influential opposition forces want to win, they must do so by June 7. If they do not, the government will reproduce itself on June 8 using any technology it considers lawful. In other words, if you don’t win by June 7, you will lose on June 8,” he said.

Asked how, for example, the “Strong Armenia” party could be barred from elections, the analyst said the CEC could simply refuse registration. “The National Assembly has adopted a law on observation missions that can be used to ban organizations not aligned with the authorities. They could also invoke the Law on Charity, which allows broad interpretation, to refuse registration to many parties. It does not matter how many supporters you have or how powerful you are – if you do not defeat the ruling force by June 8, you will lose,” he said.

Badalyan argued that large-scale public support would not change this dynamic. “The only remaining option for citizens is to go to polling stations and vote. The public has no other effective form of struggle – neither street protests nor other actions. Even if elections are falsified, people will not take to the streets in a way that forces change. In 35 years of independent Armenia, the public has never imposed its will on the ruling force through street pressure. That is a myth,” he said.

As for opposition forces posing a real threat to the government, Badalyan highlighted the potential participation of the “Strong Armenia” party. “The balance of forces and the composition of the National Assembly would change significantly depending on whether ‘Strong Armenia’ participates. Imagine a ballot without its name – a significant part of the electorate simply would not go to the polls,” he said.