Political technologist: In case of 60% turnout incumbent authorities to have no chances for reproduction

The pre-election campaign in Armenia has entered an active phase, with major political forces intensifying efforts to mobilize their electoral base, political technologist Vigen Hakobyan said in an interview with Aysor.am.

According to him, the current political landscape is characterized by uncompromising competition, with each force seeking to emphasize its advantages and strengthen influence over target voter groups.

Hakobyan noted that 4-5 political forces have a realistic chance of entering the next parliament.

He stated that the ruling Civil Contract party is expected to pass the electoral threshold, but is unlikely to secure a parliamentary majority on its own.

“Surveys show that Civil Contract will enter parliament, but will not gain 50+1,” he said.

According to him, the Armenia bloc, Strong Armenia, Prosperous Armenia, and Wings of Unity also have parliamentary ambitions.

He added that different political forces are targeting distinct segments of the electorate: while the Armenia bloc appeals primarily to voters with more radical positions, Strong Armenia focuses on broader audiences, emphasizing socio-economic development, industrial policy, and long-term national vision.

Hakobyan stressed that voter turnout could play a decisive role in the election outcome.

“If turnout is indeed close to 60 percent, as sociological surveys suggest, I believe the current authorities will have no chance of reproducing themselves. The key issue now is ensuring participation,” he said.

He also highlighted the importance of voter activity in Yerevan, where more than 840,000 voters are concentrated. According to him, this is why many opposition forces are focusing not only on presenting programs, but also on encouraging citizens to go to the polls.

Commenting on the broader electoral environment, Hakobyan said the legitimacy of elections should be assessed not only on election day, but across the entire pre-election period.

He pointed to reports of arrests, detentions, and heightened political rhetoric, which he said raise concerns about the fairness of the electoral process.

The political technologist also stressed the widespread use of administrative resources:

“During this period, we have seen numerous arrests, detentions, pressures, threats from the head of government: ‘to crush, to imprison.’ His rhetoric has exceeded the standards he has maintained over the past eight years, and is seen as a direct threat that fosters a climate of fear. In this regard, questions are already being raised about the legitimacy of the elections.”