Replacing the EAEU market with the EU is not realistic, it is anti-crisis propaganda - Economist on Pashinyan’s statements

Economist Hrant Mikaelyan questions Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that Armenian goods can be exported to the European Union countries instead of the EAEU market.

Speaking to Aysor.am, the economist assessed such statements as anti-crisis political propaganda.

“It is clear that the voter is suffering quite serious losses from these restrictions and Nikol Pashinyan needs to maintain his voter base. That is why he is now saying anything so that these people continue to support him,” he noted. 

Mikaelyan also recalled other statements by the Prime Minister and gave an example of Georgia’s experience, noting that during the years of the Russian-Georgian economic conflict, the country was unable to find full-fledged replacement markets:

“Pashinyan was saying that ‘he built 3 nuclear power plants without declaring about it’, that we would have our own gas, he probably meant Azerbaijani. All this will not happen. We already have the experience of Georgia. Georgia has never found a new market. For 7 years, Saakashvili has been involved in an economic war with Putin. They have neither found a new market nor compensated people. It’s just that the Georgian peasant has suffered huge losses and deprivations due to Saakashvili’s adventurous policy, and the same will happen here.” 

Touching upon the topic of possible compensation by the government, Mikaelyan noted that, in his assessment, numerous promises made during the pre-election period are aimed at gaining the support of voters.

According to him, the agricultural sector may suffer the most if export problems continue, and thousands of families working in that sector will also feel its consequences.

Speaking about the European Union market, he emphasized that the EU has strict entry requirements, standards, as well as various restrictions. “The European Union market is quite closed. Even those countries that have association agreements with the EU, for example, Ukraine, Georgia, have received access in limited volumes,” the economist added.

Mikaelyan noted that even in the conditions of political support, it is difficult to expect that the EU will create exceptional conditions for Armenian products.

“Even if there are certain purchases, they cannot completely replace the volumes that are currently directed to the EAEU market. People may think that in order to support Pashinyan and achieve their political goals, the EU will make an exception. But it will not. For example, Ukraine, which is even waging a war for them, has not been made an exception. It may be in very small quantities. For example, if people need to sell 10 tons, the EU can buy 500 tons,” the economist concluded.

Referring to the restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation, Pashinyan announced:

“In the near future, we have export proposals related to roses, fruits and vegetables. The bad news is that the volumes of our products are not very large. A normal European supermarket chain will consume our products at once, but at the same time I want to draw attention to the following circumstance. We produce peppers – one hundred tons, we should not export 90 tons in one direction, but 25 – in one, 25 – in the other, in the next stage we should make it 20 tons, so that it has 5, 6, 7 directions. 

Independence is the replacement of dependence on a few with dependence on many. If you are 90 percent dependent on one place, one day they may wake up and the mood will not be good. Pepper spoils, I will give the money for that pepper, if a rose spoils, I will give the money, but pepper exports will also grow. I will stand up for pepper, you stand up for peace.”